Page 124 - KDU INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CRIMINAL JUSTICE

KDU International Journal of Criminal Justice (KDUIJCJ)
Volume I | Issue II| July 2024

2. Handling Uncertainty: Insider threats and espionage activities are often
characterized by uncertainties and incomplete information. Bayes' theorem is

well-suited to handle these uncertainties by assigning prior probabilities to
variables and updating them with observed evidence. By explicitly representing
uncertainties and continuously refining the probabilities, Bayes' theorem allows

for a more nuanced and realistic assessment of the risks associated with insider
threats and espionage. This enables security analysts to make informed

decisions and prioritize their mitigation efforts effectively.

3. Multivariate Analysis: Insider threats and espionage activities are influenced

by multiple factors and dependencies. Bayes' theorem enables multivariate
analysis by considering the joint probabilities of various variables. By modeling

the relationships and dependencies among different behavioral indicators, such
as access patterns, communication networks, and user behaviors, Bayesian

models can capture complex interactions and identify suspicious patterns that
might not be evident through isolated analysis. This holistic approach enhances
the accuracy of behavioral mapping by providing a comprehensive

understanding of the threat landscape.

4. Dynamic Updating of Probabilities: The dynamic nature of insider threats and

espionage necessitates the ability to adapt and update threat models in real-
time. Bayes' theorem facilitates the continuous updating of probabilities as new

evidence becomes available. By incorporating real-time data streams, security
analysts can update the probabilities of relevant variables and adjust the risk
assessments accordingly. This dynamic updating ensures that the behavioral

mapping models remain accurate and responsive to the changing threat
landscape, leading to more effective threat detection and prevention.

5. Evidence-Based Decision-Making: Bayes' theorem provides a rigorous and

evidence-based approach to decision-making. By quantifying probabilities and

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